Excerpt from the 4Q19 Witten Advisory: With development capital still flowing, starts have accelerated in the past several months, as seen in the above chart. Total 5+ starts topped 370,000 (trailing 12-month total) as of November – the highest in two years, but still short of 2016’s peak. Production has increased even though construction costs…
DetailsExcerpt from the 3Q19 Witten Advisory: The above chart updates us on the homeownership rate, which edged slightly lower in 2Q19 to 64.2%, seasonally adjusted. That’s a smaller drop than in 1Q, and we’d expect Q3 to reverse to a small increase in homeownership as the benefit of low mortgage rates works through the markets. …
Details3Q19 Witten Advisory Excerpt: The supply picture varies dramatically across local markets, as shown in this graphic. Charlotte leads the nation at a 5% rate, which is down from the 6% pace at the same time last year. Salt Lake City surged into second place as its starts rate ramped past 4½%, nearly 2 points…
Details3Q19 Witten Advisory Excerpt: The above chart shows that demand had been running at a yearly rate of about 200,000 units from 2015 into 2018. However, leasing soared late last year to an annual run-rate of 250,000 and has remained near that level for the past four quarters. More importantly, move-ins have surpassed net deliveries…
Details2Q19 Witten Advisory Excerpt: With occupancy rising in so many markets, pricing power improved in most, as seen in the above table. That’s especially true for the leaders, with Las Vegas and Phoenix pushing rates by nearly 8% and gaining momentum. Atlanta increased rents by close to 5%, while the Inland Empire, Jacksonville and Orlando…
Details2Q19 Witten Advisory Excerpt: The U.S. continues to see about 1m fewer empty housing units than usual. Back in 2014, all of the shortfall was in rentals but now, as the headline in the above slide points out, the for-sale shortage is expanding notably. Thus, with low mortgage rates, now is a good time to…
Details2Q19 Witten Advisory Excerpt: The favorable overall supply/demand dynamics for the nation carried over to most local markets – with all but 7 reporting leasing rates outstripping net supply. If we went back a year, only 15 metros – rather than 36 – would have reported more demand than supply and thus rising occupancy rates. …
Details1Q19 Witten Advisory Excerpt: As part of that headline volatility, recent economic data has bounced around considerably. Perhaps that’s due to the gyrations in the bond and stock markets, the government shutdown, extreme weather, or 1Q biases in the collection procedures, but we don’t know for certain. What we do know is in the above…
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