3Q19 Witten Advisory Excerpt: The supply picture varies dramatically across local markets, as shown in this graphic. Charlotte leads the nation at a 5% rate, which is down from the 6% pace at the same time last year. Salt Lake City surged into second place as its starts rate ramped past 4½%, nearly 2 points above last year. Austin, Jacksonville, and Nashville follow just behind.
Just past the middle of the chart, Oakland experienced one of the more dramatic pullbacks, decelerating from 3½% to 1½% in the past year. Further, Raleigh, Dallas, San Antonio and San Diego all are off by a point.
To recap, local starts rates are above the U.S. norm in most and far exceed in some of the most active development markets across the country. But, the metros with lots of supply also tend to be the more dynamic economies, adding jobs and young adults at rates that far outstrip the national aggregates.